# PeoplesOdds — Active Markets

> Free-to-play prediction platform. The free alternative to Polymarket.
> Browse and vote on real-world outcomes at https://www.peoplesodds.com

Generated: 2026-10-28T18:36:21.537Z
Total active markets: 200

## Sports (59 markets)

### Will Pep Guardiola still be Manchester City manager on Monday 1 June 2026?
A new era of F1 regulations shakes up the grid.
- YES: 59.7% | NO: 40.3%
- Total votes: 53862
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/e8db7a9a-7d47-4162-ba1e-e5a3451c6b0e

### Will England win a single knockout game at the World Cup this year?
The England men's senior football team wins a match in the knockout stage (Round of 16 or beyond) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- YES: 49.56% | NO: 50.44%
- Total votes: 33944
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/b005de0d-a3b5-483b-b8f4-b852a75b03d3

### Will Conor McGregor fight in 2026?
Conor McGregor, a former UFC champion, has not fought since July 2021 due to injury and other ventures, fueling speculation about his retirement. His potential return is a major topic in combat sports, with fans and analysts debating his future impact on UFC events and pay-per-view sales. Recent discussions have centered on his training updates and UFC's efforts to book high-profile fights, making 2026 a key year for his career trajectory.
- YES: 80.13% | NO: 19.870000000000005%
- Total votes: 61626
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/1cd931d1-e738-4079-b375-48ff2de3ec04

### Will England appoint a foreign manager before Euro 2028?
This question resolves YES if the Football Association officially appoints a non-English citizen as head coach of the England men's national team on or before the start of UEFA Euro 2028 (14 June 2028). Resolves NO if the manager is English. Source: official FA announcement.
- YES: 41.12% | NO: 58.88%
- Total votes: 28992
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/865534e5-1a07-452b-aa0a-baf2e4cf9920

### Will the next permanent England manager be English?
This question resolves YES if the next permanent head coach of the England men's national football team appointed by the FA holds English citizenship. Resolves NO if they hold any other citizenship. Source: official FA announcement.
- YES: 64.12% | NO: 35.879999999999995%
- Total votes: 54680
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/5b743b41-dfed-4d02-b47f-8f06b8f4addc

### Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
This question resolves YES if Erling Haaland wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or award. Resolves NO if any other player wins. Source: official Ballon d'Or announcement.
- YES: 38.24% | NO: 61.76%
- Total votes: 52657
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/a82361e1-d129-4e24-a806-7ca21572dc63

### Will Wimbledon be forced to pay players more prize money?
- YES: 32.68% | NO: 67.32%
- Total votes: 30220
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/096b6eba-7216-4dec-84ea-0fe28b6c4373

### Will US host security concerns cause a team withdrawal by year end?
Official statement from any qualified national team or football association confirming withdrawal from the 2026 World Cup due to US security concerns.
- YES: 38.46% | NO: 61.54%
- Total votes: 6867
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/b125be44-04ef-4efb-9c0b-3d52a6543cb4

### Will another country back Iran's call by year end?
Any other FIFA member nation publicly endorses or supports Iran's call for USA removal by 23:59 GMT on 2026-12-31.
- YES: 65.12% | NO: 34.879999999999995%
- Total votes: 20820
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/5062a6fe-6d01-4318-879a-7f45c1c55807

### Will 'The Wall' at Intuit Dome cause 5+ opponent turnovers in the Clippers' first 10 home games?
This question resolves YES if LA Clippers opponents commit 5 or more turnovers directly attributable to 'The Wall' fan section during the first 10 regular season home games at Intuit Dome in the 2026-27 NBA season. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official NBA play-by-play data and team attribution.
- YES: 60.96% | NO: 39.04%
- Total votes: 53858
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/883072bc-7e85-449f-9263-a301bc0859e1

### Will Pellegrino Matarazzo win a trophy in a top European league before 1st July 2027?
This question resolves YES if Pellegrino Matarazzo wins any domestic cup (e.g., Copa del Rey, DFB-Pokal) or league title in La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, or Premier League on or before 1 July 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official league/federation announcements.
- YES: 59.62% | NO: 40.38%
- Total votes: 49147
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/ef5b64a1-8dc0-448c-88fa-3c34a7e65d63

### Will flag football be an Olympic sport by the 2032 Brisbane Games?
This question resolves YES if flag football is included as an official medal sport in the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games programme. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official IOC announcement.
- YES: 71.99% | NO: 28.010000000000005%
- Total votes: 46880
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/d62efb78-23aa-44ff-968f-529e16c73e62

### Will Jannik Sinner win the men's French Open singles title on Sunday 7 June 2026?
- YES: 68.23% | NO: 31.769999999999996%
- Total votes: 44866
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/31ef7a20-f206-439b-bc16-964df8771c53

### Selena Janicijevic vs Elizabeth Mandlik
Predict the winner of Selena Janicijevic vs Elizabeth Mandlik in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 63.47% | NO: 36.53%
- Total votes: 219
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/5e85b5d1-bb62-4ba9-b8e7-5bfb842248ab

### Will US host security measures cause a major fan incident by year end?
Credible news report (e.g., Reuters, AP) confirming a security-related incident at a US World Cup venue—such as a stampede, major breach, or violent protest—resulting in significant injury, arrest, or disruption.
- YES: 34.54% | NO: 65.46000000000001%
- Total votes: 49764
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/d5babb9a-6bee-4eb8-a7ee-5b938f093d66

### Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils
Predict the winner of Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils in the Swiss Indoors Basel.
- YES: 55.65% | NO: 44.35%
- Total votes: 575
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/6284fe43-6e18-477f-9b72-5e67b7e65a40

### Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini
Predict the winner of Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini in the Erste Bank Open.
- YES: 50.76% | NO: 49.24%
- Total votes: 528
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/7b8ea99a-d440-42bd-b6f8-cf4654a3f5ff

### Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka
Predict the winner of Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka in the Swiss Indoors Basel.
- YES: 52.25% | NO: 47.75%
- Total votes: 622
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/956a944d-e7ba-4d88-8f48-4bcafbbb089b

### Ben Shelton vs Jerome Kym
Predict the winner of Ben Shelton vs Jerome Kym in the Swiss Indoors Basel.
- YES: 48.9% | NO: 51.1%
- Total votes: 863
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/a33e9ebe-eadc-41eb-8683-447ec3855ec7

### Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva
Predict the winner of Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva in the Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis.
- YES: 59.51% | NO: 40.49%
- Total votes: 657
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/e4eefab9-aae9-49c4-ab21-ac2932a666df

### Jil Teichmann vs Zeynep Sonmez
Predict the winner of Jil Teichmann vs Zeynep Sonmez in the Guangzhou Open.
- YES: 41.18% | NO: 58.82%
- Total votes: 391
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/0603b186-4e56-4d5e-ab0a-7b9200ba9f80

### Francesca Jones vs Marjorie Souza
Predict the winner of Francesca Jones vs Marjorie Souza in the Curitiba Open.
- YES: 64.61% | NO: 35.39%
- Total votes: 551
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/9a8580b5-8fa5-434b-895c-035e94e838af

### Anna Bondar vs Kaitlin Quevedo
Predict the winner of Anna Bondar vs Kaitlin Quevedo in the Guangzhou Open.
- YES: 48.41% | NO: 51.59%
- Total votes: 314
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/b2fda8f7-3c95-43d3-bfee-4a9e918c85c9

### Saka to score more goals this season than Palmer?
- YES: 37.01% | NO: 62.99%
- Total votes: 10811
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/7915375c-f18d-4c45-b06b-bc099c577adc

### Will Anthony Joshua beat Tyson Fury on 11 December 2026?
- YES: 37.48% | NO: 62.52%
- Total votes: 3749
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/e4ca4f65-4cbc-48ae-86b7-5d0b7f44d324

### Lilli Tagger vs Magda Linette
Predict the winner of Lilli Tagger vs Magda Linette in the Guangzhou Open.
- YES: 59.29% | NO: 40.71%
- Total votes: 565
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/ba3f909a-29e6-4973-b36b-6d6b37082aaa

### Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun
Predict the winner of Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun in the Guangzhou Open.
- YES: 59.85% | NO: 40.15%
- Total votes: 259
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/c1bd3347-d4c3-4ead-9962-ed031ad67145

### Julia Riera vs Yasmine Kabbaj
Predict the winner of Julia Riera vs Yasmine Kabbaj in the Curitiba Open.
- YES: 49.47% | NO: 50.53%
- Total votes: 188
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/fedb7903-2365-4b62-84c9-ffd81fadff94

### WILL MANCHESTER UNITED SACK MICHAEL CARRICK BEFORE CHRISTMAS?
WILL MANCHESTER UNITED SACK MICHAEL CARRICK BEFORE CHRISTMAS?
- YES: 38.56% | NO: 61.44%
- Total votes: 2980
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/9b4d612d-75bd-427f-b040-7fcf24acb15b

### WILL ARSENAL STILL WIN THE PREMIER LEAGUE?
- YES: 36.53% | NO: 63.47%
- Total votes: 4686
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/da4ccd53-dcdb-4441-837d-927b44ce7265

### WILL MICHAEL CARRICK STILL BE MAN UNITED MANAGER AT CHRISTMAS?
WILL MICHAEL CARRICK STILL BE MAN UNITED MANAGER AT CHRISTMAS?
- YES: 65.95% | NO: 34.05%
- Total votes: 6602
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/34c1a619-3005-4ee4-b22e-8c560cf953e9

### Will Anthony Joshua beat Tyson Fury on 11 December 2026?
Will Anthony Joshua beat Tyson Fury on 11 December 2026?
- YES: 48.71% | NO: 51.29%
- Total votes: 4046
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/b60b6675-791e-4391-8f54-1ebc349fe1cc

### Tamara Zidansek vs Alicia Herrero Linana
Predict the winner of Tamara Zidansek vs Alicia Herrero Linana in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 54% | NO: 46%
- Total votes: 350
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/0c4091da-0d14-4e56-bef1-7eadb5988b50

### Maria Lourdes Carle vs Julia Grabher
Predict the winner of Maria Lourdes Carle vs Julia Grabher in the Curitiba Open.
- YES: 56.39% | NO: 43.61%
- Total votes: 821
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/2a6cef28-75a2-45d2-a0e4-742ad68d1175

### Nadia Podoroska vs Miriam Bulgaru
Predict the winner of Nadia Podoroska vs Miriam Bulgaru in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 46.68% | NO: 53.32%
- Total votes: 452
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/427d3fb3-81c6-4f2f-a455-1adae72fb79a

### Tatjana Maria vs Martina Colmegna
Predict the winner of Tatjana Maria vs Martina Colmegna in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 38.28% | NO: 61.72%
- Total votes: 303
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/81765294-3e8f-42f7-b7b4-bc06eec26da2

### Diletta Cherubini vs Bianca Andreescu
Predict the winner of Diletta Cherubini vs Bianca Andreescu in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 41.73% | NO: 58.27%
- Total votes: 623
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/897fc0cd-765f-4cd5-9918-706cecefd59b

### Polona Hercog vs Valeriya Strakhova
Predict the winner of Polona Hercog vs Valeriya Strakhova in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 43.26% | NO: 56.74%
- Total votes: 460
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/d650794a-e170-4ed2-8f5f-1f9018fdf27c

### Frosinone vs Lecce
Predict the result of Frosinone vs Lecce in the Serie A.
- YES: 46.05% | NO: 53.95%
- Total votes: 569
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/3721ec0a-dee9-4a1e-bb5f-aeec1bf118bd

### Genoa vs Juventus
Predict the result of Genoa vs Juventus in the Serie A.
- YES: 43.17% | NO: 56.83%
- Total votes: 630
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/88b469dd-40aa-4018-92bb-e67021e28087

### Monza vs Napoli
Predict the result of Monza vs Napoli in the Serie A.
- YES: 37.66% | NO: 62.34%
- Total votes: 231
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/c9293f84-89e7-4acc-94e0-909bd07376b6

### Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Predict the result of Fiorentina vs Atalanta in the Serie A.
- YES: 42.97% | NO: 57.03%
- Total votes: 505
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/776a22ec-5e36-492d-84a4-bdf17418ef21

### Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
Predict the winner of Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA.
- YES: 55.73% | NO: 44.27%
- Total votes: 192
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/1ca89f0c-f19e-4b93-83f4-012da20ae321

### Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets
Predict the winner of Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets in the NBA.
- YES: 60.41% | NO: 39.59%
- Total votes: 677
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/1cfb7338-c1d9-4aa2-9d69-be6b3427c0a4

### Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards
Predict the winner of Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards in the NBA.
- YES: 49.56% | NO: 50.44%
- Total votes: 676
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/4121d624-d4e9-4f4f-8d34-cc3774428bf9

### Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
Predict the winner of Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat in the NBA.
- YES: 65.19% | NO: 34.81%
- Total votes: 158
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/fbf54907-1176-41d9-baf9-1f030d503e9f

### Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic
Predict the winner of Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic in the NBA.
- YES: 53.13% | NO: 46.87%
- Total votes: 864
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/5b309419-451d-4004-be24-87af1dfd205e

### Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
Predict the winner of Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks in the NBA.
- YES: 52.19% | NO: 47.81%
- Total votes: 640
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/c9fdf3a1-57b6-4e92-bc09-ad847e7719d3

### Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets
Predict the winner of Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets in the NBA.
- YES: 40.24% | NO: 59.76%
- Total votes: 584
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/f9f4fafd-1da3-4682-9b0f-39cbb3aa20e0

### New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets
Predict the winner of New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets in the NBA.
- YES: 44.18% | NO: 55.82%
- Total votes: 799
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/9e870311-73c7-4174-93f6-2e925ec7743f

### Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors
Predict the winner of Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors in the NBA.
- YES: 53.98% | NO: 46.02%
- Total votes: 804
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/e5ee7db0-9e5b-4987-b42a-d0c37fea0c6e

### Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs
Predict the winner of Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs in the NBA.
- YES: 55.78% | NO: 44.22%
- Total votes: 303
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/f3110d4a-bf5c-4b9e-bf17-ae2a24291c9b

### Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Predict the winner of Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA.
- YES: 51.63% | NO: 48.37%
- Total votes: 523
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/7644b055-34ec-4786-98da-03f62fb3e257

### LA Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers
Predict the winner of LA Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA.
- YES: 52.91% | NO: 47.09%
- Total votes: 550
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/c1c317f6-30fd-4a84-bbf7-042de208e279

### Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Predict the winner of Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA.
- YES: 39.79% | NO: 60.21%
- Total votes: 573
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/18a06a6f-6aea-44b0-a040-a178c0d0aa4e

### New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings
Predict the winner of New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings in the NBA.
- YES: 47.04% | NO: 52.96%
- Total votes: 693
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/ddbc6caf-f9cc-44cc-9ac0-eeb85f854749

### Lucrezia Stefanini vs Ayla Aksu
Predict the winner of Lucrezia Stefanini vs Ayla Aksu in the Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open.
- YES: 47.8% | NO: 52.2%
- Total votes: 341
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/21e59a85-50c2-4e4c-aec6-3ce60bc039c0

### Carmen Andreea Herea vs Carole Monnet
Predict the winner of Carmen Andreea Herea vs Carole Monnet in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 53.31% | NO: 46.69%
- Total votes: 302
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/0f093797-6e6c-436e-81e2-f4dc484097da

### Fiona Ferro vs Adriana Reami
Predict the winner of Fiona Ferro vs Adriana Reami in the Queretaro Open.
- YES: 51.09% | NO: 48.91%
- Total votes: 458
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/sports/efde1c7a-92be-4555-9dd2-41e6e19eeaf6

## Crypto (14 markets)

### ETH Flippening in 2026
The long-awaited flippening debate.
- YES: 29.49% | NO: 70.51%
- Total votes: 38298
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/45ede71b-b54e-4c2b-8e86-9af50ef2d567

### Solana Above $500?
Solana's high-speed blockchain continues to gain traction.
- YES: 32.35% | NO: 67.65%
- Total votes: 40847
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/b2fa2a5e-62b0-4634-9453-761dbed2ee39

### Will a quantum computer crack Bitcoin's encryption before 1st January 2030?
This question resolves YES if a quantum computer successfully breaks Bitcoin's SHA-256 encryption, as verified by a peer-reviewed paper or major cryptographic institution (e.g., NIST) on or before 1 January 2030 at 23:59 UTC. Resolves NO otherwise.
- YES: 61.82% | NO: 38.18%
- Total votes: 26012
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/6eeb75a7-f678-42a7-a0a6-97082cb31e91

### DOGE above $1 in 2026?
Dogecoin's price has been volatile, influenced by social media trends and endorsements from figures like Elon Musk. The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing renewed interest, with major coins seeing significant gains. Reaching $1 would represent a major milestone for DOGE, which has struggled to maintain high valuations despite its popularity.
- YES: 28.15% | NO: 71.85%
- Total votes: 43695
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/2fb7cecb-8ed6-448d-bd53-017d7cbb0b2a

### Will Bitcoin hit an all-time high before December 31st?
- YES: 70.78% | NO: 29.22%
- Total votes: 26112
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/c49e9ee8-05b6-4f55-96ea-950bb4c59a4d

### Will Hedera (HBAR) beat its 2024 high before 31st December 2026?
This question resolves YES if HBAR/USD spot price on CoinGecko reaches or exceeds $0.18 at any point on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Resolves NO otherwise. Backup source: CoinMarketCap.
- YES: 69.44% | NO: 30.560000000000002%
- Total votes: 37909
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/4fe7d6cd-efb8-412c-9e44-2a7d167f4bf0

### Will Bitcoin hit an all-time high before December 31st?
- YES: 27.8% | NO: 72.2%
- Total votes: 25521
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/17e2ce24-546d-4ffa-85c5-96d92f93f7ec

### Will Ethereum hit $10,000 before the end of 2026?
- YES: 31.32% | NO: 68.68%
- Total votes: 23327
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/54a19298-e4d9-4f8f-a1b0-a918879ed074

### WILL ETHEREUM HIT $10,000 IN 2026?
- YES: 71.93% | NO: 28.069999999999993%
- Total votes: 21346
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/c1e528e2-1f14-4cf1-859f-b9e175f92096

### WILL BITCOIN HIT $150,000 BY YEAR END?
- YES: 76.3% | NO: 23.700000000000003%
- Total votes: 21439
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/8b5f1a9b-57d6-4844-9447-2a9e82f50935

### ₿ Will Bitcoin hit an all-time high before December 31st?
- YES: 25.9% | NO: 74.1%
- Total votes: 25878
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/6f12d6ce-8d5b-4d07-ae31-eb82ab01c8ae

### WILL ETHEREUM HIT $10,000 IN 2026?
WILL ETHEREUM HIT $10,000 IN 2026?
- YES: 27.7% | NO: 72.3%
- Total votes: 20760
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/acd24d98-99d9-46de-8b15-6d95b68e6dfa

### Will Ethereum hit $10,000 before the end of 2026?
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 before the end of 2026?
- YES: 28.14% | NO: 71.86%
- Total votes: 23553
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/b488934a-3fd0-4911-b2b9-ce35617b43c8

### Will Bitcoin hit an all-time high before December 31st?
- YES: 67.24% | NO: 32.760000000000005%
- Total votes: 25704
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/crypto/cbb03be4-3e7d-4db8-80ee-21f1f84bd49e

## Politics (33 markets)

### Will the prison population in England and Wales reach 90,000 on or before 30 September 2026?
The next UK general election is expected by 2029.
- YES: 35.69% | NO: 64.31%
- Total votes: 47334
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/5e4fef73-ddc0-446c-8a99-01cc65d11a03

### Trump Executive Orders Count
Tracking presidential executive action volume.
- YES: 33.18% | NO: 66.82%
- Total votes: 50826
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/0a959df4-2563-4979-83fe-51ed500ef186

### Will the UK have fewer than 15 frigates and destroyers by year end?
Official Ministry of Defence or Royal Navy statement confirming the total number of active frigates and destroyers is 15 or fewer by 2026-12-31.
- YES: 60.16% | NO: 39.84%
- Total votes: 22933
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/3e78e07b-6a38-47ca-9ee3-2ff3e0db1de8

### Will Nigel Farage be Reform UK leader on 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if Nigel Farage holds the official position of Reform UK leader on 1 January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO if he has resigned, been replaced, or the party has dissolved. Source: Reform UK official announcements.
- YES: 63.45% | NO: 36.55%
- Total votes: 47513
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/3b4b70be-20cc-4612-92c3-6c5d42aaa792

### Will the UK government move to block X entirely over the Grok child-imagery scandal?
- YES: 33.42% | NO: 66.58%
- Total votes: 34280
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/c77fe811-4982-421a-b9cc-18439abfbc9f

### Reform are surging and the pressure's on — is Keir Starmer still PM by the end of 2026?
- YES: 34.39% | NO: 65.61%
- Total votes: 35699
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/7e42e034-def6-4d55-ba97-7a806706c4c2

### Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028?
This question resolves YES if Kamala Harris is officially nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for President at the 2028 Democratic National Convention. Resolves NO if any other candidate is nominated. Source: official DNC convention results.
- YES: 63.74% | NO: 36.26%
- Total votes: 47710
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/9e654fde-dfdd-4ff0-9839-bdd81edfe70d

### Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee?
- YES: 34.7% | NO: 65.3%
- Total votes: 55739
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/d9af4259-648e-44a5-965f-c5bd6c3fcef9

### Will Kulbergs call a snap election before 2027?
This question resolves YES if Andris Kulbergs calls a snap election (Saeima dissolved early) before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Latvian government announcements.
- YES: 66.95% | NO: 33.05%
- Total votes: 40260
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/d0c9cf93-2e3e-436b-a79b-8b6ff78da9be

### Wes Streeting as Labour leader before 2027?
This question resolves YES if Wes Streeting holds the office of Labour Party leader on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Labour Party announcements.
- YES: 65.17% | NO: 34.83%
- Total votes: 45036
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/b9ee0d99-f524-402f-9ea8-b5d252b305f7

### Reform surging, Westminster on edge — a UK election before 2026's out?
- YES: 66.65% | NO: 33.349999999999994%
- Total votes: 36654
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/e3633e64-bc5b-484e-807a-3c65eb9af987

### Will Latvia call a snap election before 2027?
This question resolves YES if the Saeima (Latvian parliament) is dissolved and a snap election is called on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 BST. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Latvian government announcements.
- YES: 64.29% | NO: 35.709999999999994%
- Total votes: 40003
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/5cae081a-489b-449e-bbd1-f0f309788ba3

### Will NHS waiting lists fall below 6 million by 2027?
Wes Streeting promised to 'fix the front door' of the NHS, but waiting lists have barely budged from their 2024 peak. Industrial action, workforce shortages, and rising demand continue to strain the system.
- YES: 11.87% | NO: 88.13%
- Total votes: 26421
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/efa421c7-aff3-43cf-85c3-d544339a8337

### Will Democrats take back the House in the midterms?
- YES: 65.4% | NO: 34.599999999999994%
- Total votes: 31896
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/e7d39993-ccb4-4cf6-a29a-e7cb9bbdfe83

### Will free school meals be extended to all primary children?
London already provides universal free school meals for primary children. Research shows it improves attendance and attainment, especially for children just above the eligibility threshold. The cost would be £1.5 billion.
- YES: 29.27% | NO: 70.73%
- Total votes: 25522
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/6036aabf-7895-4b6d-a1ed-3c762bab0361

### Will the UK declare a formal climate emergency in law?
The 2019 parliamentary declaration was symbolic. Campaigners want legal force — requiring the government to treat climate change as a national emergency with emergency powers and fast-tracked legislation.
- YES: 12.59% | NO: 87.41%
- Total votes: 26445
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/4d839552-8fa6-463d-a86d-f2b6b2be1e84

### Will Democrats take back the House in the midterms?
- YES: 65.94% | NO: 34.06%
- Total votes: 17361
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/447a762b-adb9-48dc-9179-5141a9634f0a

### Will Keir Starmer resign before the end of 2026?
- YES: 64.76% | NO: 35.239999999999995%
- Total votes: 26365
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/34a160da-b21f-4b99-b611-e4b06931d1f8

### Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic nomination?
This question resolves YES if Kamala Harris is formally nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for President at the 2028 Democratic National Convention. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Democratic National Committee announcement.
- YES: 62.27% | NO: 37.73%
- Total votes: 11079
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/a3135efd-2945-463b-94b7-25e051552f37

### Will police make an arrest in the Reform UK donations investigation before 1 November 2026?
- YES: 57.75% | NO: 42.25%
- Total votes: 1799
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/58f2f62c-e2a6-4b40-9138-82c968de622c

### Is a UK general election called before 1st June 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Prime Minister formally dissolves Parliament and calls a general election with a polling day on or before 1 June 2027, as confirmed by an official Royal Proclamation or House of Commons announcement. Resolves NO if no dissolution has occurred by that date. Source: Parliament.uk official records.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Wed, 2 Jun 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Closes: Wed, 2 Jun 2027, 00:59 UK time. Resolved after: Wed, 2 Jun 2027, 01:59 UK time.
Primary source: official UK Parliament announcements (parliament.uk).
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 57.35% | NO: 42.65%
- Total votes: 3557
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/06303301-7e63-4369-8191-7ca4bae41def

### Can Natalie Harp survive as Trump aide until 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if Natalie Harp holds an official position in the Trump administration or campaign on 1 January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO if she has resigned, been fired, or no longer holds any such position. Source: official White House staff directory or campaign announcements.
- YES: 63.35% | NO: 36.65%
- Total votes: 15698
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/0ce3f7c9-0234-45de-a308-17a1d96d6288

### Saudi-Israel normalization deal signed before 2028?
This question resolves YES if Saudi Arabia and Israel sign a formal normalization agreement (e.g., a peace treaty or full diplomatic relations) on or before 1 January 2028 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official announcements from both governments or the US State Department.
- YES: 57.21% | NO: 42.79%
- Total votes: 13157
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/a7187331-d026-4e12-ac45-982ad90d6152

### Can Starmer survive as PM until the May 2027 local elections?
This question resolves YES if Keir Starmer holds the office of Prime Minister on 6 May 2027 at 23:59 BST. Resolves NO if he has resigned, been replaced, or a general election has produced a different PM. Source: official UK government announcements.
- YES: 37.95% | NO: 62.05%
- Total votes: 30239
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/92d6eb4e-26a6-4083-a85a-baffec708636

### Merz still German Chancellor on 1st July 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if Friedrich Merz holds the office of Chancellor of Germany on 1 July 2027 at 23:59 CET. Resolves NO if he has resigned, been replaced, or a new election has produced a different Chancellor. Source: official German government announcements.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 2 Jul 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 2 Jul 2027, 00:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 2 Jul 2027, 01:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-chancellor-merz-of-germany-8-october-2026.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 51.59% | NO: 48.41%
- Total votes: 4183
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/de143ba4-f467-4e73-aef7-babd4ab471fc

### Will the UK and Germany sign a formal defence pact by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK and German governments sign a bilateral defence agreement or treaty on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT, as confirmed by an official UK government or German government announcement. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: gov.uk and bundesregierung.de official releases.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-chancellor-merz-of-germany-8-october-2026.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 55.49% | NO: 44.51%
- Total votes: 2175
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/2034d803-2301-466f-b7c4-22396f03df2b

### UK-Germany defence deal by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK and German governments sign a bilateral defence agreement on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT, as confirmed by an official UK government or German government announcement. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: gov.uk and bundesregierung.de.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-chancellor-merz-of-germany-8-october-2026.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 54.26% | NO: 45.74%
- Total votes: 3780
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/2eb389f0-9fad-440a-829c-35d32444dbcb

### Will the UK deploy additional troops to Africa under a UN-AU mission by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK Ministry of Defence announces the deployment of additional UK military personnel (beyond current baseline) to an active UN or African Union peacekeeping mission in Africa on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official MoD announcements and UN peacekeeping records.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/at-a-time-of-deepening-conflict-and-insecurity-across-parts-of-the-continent-the-partnership-between-the-united-nations-and-african-union-is-indispens.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 53.25% | NO: 46.75%
- Total votes: 5497
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/11d8b10d-0c77-4175-aaf4-356e6ae46ef3

### Can the Greens win a second parliamentary seat before 1st January 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Green Party wins a second parliamentary seat (beyond their current MP) in any by-election or general election on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official returning officer declarations.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: official UK Parliament announcements (parliament.uk).
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 49.92% | NO: 50.08%
- Total votes: 6602
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/26d485f4-4852-4577-9085-16242afd3dde

### Can Reform UK avoid an Electoral Commission fine over donations by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Electoral Commission does not issue a fine, sanction, or formal finding of wrongdoing against Reform UK relating to the donations sting by 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO if any such penalty is issued. Source: Electoral Commission enforcement register.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: official Electoral Commission announcements (electoralcommission.org.uk).
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 60.93% | NO: 39.07%
- Total votes: 4454
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/d17ac6fd-61e5-4ba8-a618-a2e216e57150

### Will the government hit its 1.5 million homes target by 2029?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK government's official statistics show 1.5 million or more net additional dwellings were completed between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2029. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: MHCLG official housing supply statistics.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Mon, 31 Dec 2029, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Mon, 31 Dec 2029, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Tue, 1 Jan 2030, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-new-national-planning-policy-framework-letter-to-the-chief-executive-of-the-planning-inspectorate.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 59.97% | NO: 40.03%
- Total votes: 5509
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/f830a3c1-6753-4049-bca0-f507f18d6918

### Will Keir Starmer resign before the end of 2026?
Will Keir Starmer resign before the end of 2026?
- YES: 65.5% | NO: 34.5%
- Total votes: 30138
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/80e28507-7630-4617-99bb-e8a533da40f0

### Will Democrats take back the House in the midterms?
- YES: 64.46% | NO: 35.540000000000006%
- Total votes: 31132
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/politics/f414966b-50ce-4594-8cfa-1581d5df72ff

## Showbiz (26 markets)

### Best Picture Oscar 2027
The race for Hollywood's top prize.
- YES: 74.53% | NO: 25.47%
- Total votes: 33764
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/06f01dfe-e850-4171-b391-43d9ab9580c5

### Will a Spice Girls documentary or biopic get announced by end of 2026?
Official announcement from a studio, network, or streaming service confirming a Spice Girls documentary or biopic for release by 2026-12-31.
- YES: 77.03% | NO: 22.97%
- Total votes: 16499
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/5fa00842-a412-4598-b374-b3547919c5ad

### Will the BBC scrap the licence fee before 2027?
Official announcement from the UK government or the BBC confirming the abolition of the television licence fee, or a government white paper/legislation tabled in Parliament with that explicit aim.
- YES: 23.71% | NO: 76.28999999999999%
- Total votes: 17068
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/b52121ff-294f-4f80-af18-e9f71fcba82a

### Will the true crime series 'The Night Caller' get a season 2 before 2027?
This question resolves YES if a second season of the true crime series 'The Night Caller' is officially announced for release on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: platform press release or official social media.
- YES: 80.27% | NO: 19.730000000000004%
- Total votes: 25069
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/20119292-204e-4326-95c5-5d222b6fe8c4

### Will The Apprentice winner's business survive until Christmas?
Public announcement of business closure or Lord Sugar confirming the investment has been withdrawn by 31 Dec 2026.
- YES: 25.8% | NO: 74.2%
- Total votes: 17463
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/67de067a-98d4-470f-9dd0-42bfb0732e80

### Will the Apple TV+ thriller with the Peaky Blinders star be rated Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes?
This question resolves YES if the Apple TV+ thriller series (featuring the Peaky Blinders star and created by the acclaimed writer) achieves a 'Fresh' rating (60% or higher) on Rotten Tomatoes for its first season within 30 days of its premiere, on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Rotten Tomatoes official score.
- YES: 78.46% | NO: 21.540000000000006%
- Total votes: 25763
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/1e80f591-836b-42f9-9384-497432e7ecb5

### Will Sandrine Holt appear in Daredevil: Born Again before 2027?
This question resolves YES if Sandrine Holt is officially credited as appearing in any episode of Daredevil: Born Again that premieres on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Disney+ credits or Marvel Studios press release.
- YES: 79.34% | NO: 20.659999999999997%
- Total votes: 26360
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/7d138c3c-04c2-4af7-96f7-d5e3894dbdff

### Will 'Is Something Very Bad Is Going To Happen' get a Season 2 on Netflix?
This question resolves YES if Netflix officially announces a second season of 'Is Something Very Bad Is Going To Happen' on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Netflix press release or verified Netflix social media account.
- YES: 79.01% | NO: 20.989999999999995%
- Total votes: 26482
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/962eb464-f47d-4727-8588-49b0e0f279b9

### Will Netflix renew Age of Attraction for season 2 before 2027?
This question resolves YES if Netflix officially announces a second season of Age of Attraction for release on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Netflix press release or official social media.
- YES: 78.48% | NO: 21.519999999999996%
- Total votes: 26604
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/42f65ed5-2a77-46ed-9194-5aabaef3b745

### Will Paul Anderson appear in The Immortal Man Season 2?
This question resolves YES if Paul Anderson is officially announced as part of the cast for Season 2 of The Immortal Man, or appears in any Season 2 episode, on or before 30 June 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official casting announcement or credits in the released season.
- YES: 77.8% | NO: 22.200000000000003%
- Total votes: 27045
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/37b99f12-6ff3-4fd0-8bd0-84e47ef2b17c

### Will The Odyssey gross over $500M globally by 1st September 2027?
This question resolves YES if The Odyssey (2027) grosses $500 million or more globally by 1 September 2027 at 23:59 BST. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Box Office Mojo or official distributor figures.
- YES: 74.19% | NO: 25.810000000000002%
- Total votes: 19382
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/9025df4b-c8eb-436d-80db-2e18e2365094

### Will Miles Morales appear in Spider-Man: Brand New Day before 2027?
This question resolves YES if Miles Morales appears as a character (live-action or voice) in the film Spider-Man: Brand New Day, confirmed by official Marvel Studios or Sony announcement or the film's credits, on or before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official studio announcement or final credits.
- YES: 76.85% | NO: 23.150000000000006%
- Total votes: 16447
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/0a61dc93-40c6-4050-a11d-426665f312bc

### Will the Strictly curse strike again in 2026?
Resolves 'Yes' if any celebrity or pro in the 2026 series is reported by a major UK tabloid (Sun, Mirror, Mail) to have split from their long-term partner during or within 3 months after the series ends. 'No' if no such reports.
- YES: 79.6% | NO: 20.400000000000006%
- Total votes: 5842
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/61519a85-65ed-43ce-b2b7-a2f8d0f1eadd

### Will a Strictly pro leave the show before the 2026 final?
Resolves 'Yes' if any professional dancer is officially confirmed to have left the show (due to injury, dismissal, or personal reasons) before the live final on 19 December 2026. 'No' if all pros remain until the final.
- YES: 81.56% | NO: 18.439999999999998%
- Total votes: 8035
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/3d3be0f1-7b2c-47d4-95df-2c8cead74ad9

### Will the Strictly curse strike again in 2026?
Resolves 'Yes' if any celebrity or professional in the 2026 season publicly confirms a new relationship with a partner/crew member (or their previous relationship ends amid rumours) before the final.
- YES: 80.94% | NO: 19.060000000000002%
- Total votes: 7477
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/59b6d2c0-2906-434d-98b0-121ff2f55457

### Will a professional dancer leave before the final?
Resolves 'Yes' if any professional dancer (as listed on the official Strictly site) is removed from the lineup or announces departure before the final show.
- YES: 18.12% | NO: 81.88%
- Total votes: 7367
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/057af2dc-1e3e-4ba5-8522-2e7101f06f70

### Will Akira crack the IMDb Top 250 by 31st December 2026?
This question resolves YES if Akira (1989) appears on the IMDb Top 250 movies list as of 31st December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: IMDb official Top 250 list.
- YES: 70.81% | NO: 29.189999999999998%
- Total votes: 9137
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/84beaa5d-8cfe-4a58-8e9b-d3201781cb27

### Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announce they're expecting before 2026 ends?
- YES: 83.35% | NO: 16.650000000000006%
- Total votes: 7598
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/26df2a70-109c-412e-866a-4535fb1b16d8

### Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day cross $2 billion worldwide by the end of its run?
- YES: 82.14% | NO: 17.86%
- Total votes: 5694
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/26665137-231d-44c9-9730-2286fd329ac2

### Will any celebrity score a perfect 40 before Week 6?
Resolves 'Yes' if any couple receives a score of 40 from the judges during any of the first five weeks of live shows (Weeks 1-5). 'No' if the first 40 happens in Week 6 or later, or never.
- YES: 81.81% | NO: 18.189999999999998%
- Total votes: 8297
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/74cc9516-c6c6-4d93-8ec0-b21fd2edf699

### Will 9/11 Reunited be the most-watched Nat Geo UK doc of 2026?
Resolves YES if the premiere of 9/11 Reunited on National Geographic UK (21 Aug 2026) records the highest UK viewership of any National Geographic UK documentary premiering in 2026, based on official BARB figures. Resolves NO otherwise.
- YES: 69.02% | NO: 30.980000000000004%
- Total votes: 7806
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/12a3200a-1085-453b-929a-447db2d345e3

### WILL 'THE ODYSSEY' BE 2026'S HIGHEST-GROSSING MOVIE?
- YES: 78.88% | NO: 21.120000000000005%
- Total votes: 4101
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/fb34950a-06b6-48c9-b99f-ab6c8136f3b7

### Can J Balvin top the Billboard Latin chart with a new single in 2026?
This question resolves YES if any new single by J Balvin reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot Latin Songs chart in 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Billboard official chart.
- YES: 79.68% | NO: 20.319999999999993%
- Total votes: 24526
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/7d0bca57-a213-4444-a2a7-768fd0baf08e

### Will a GTA VI radio station track hit UK Top 40 before 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if any track featured on a Grand Theft Auto VI in-game radio station enters the Official UK Singles Chart Top 40 on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Official Charts Company.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: official Official Charts announcements (officialcharts.com).
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 53.53% | NO: 46.47%
- Total votes: 2645
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/513bb855-db7b-47fc-b828-d1f379fc480e

### Will Lola Young win a Brit Award in 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if Lola Young wins any category at the 2027 Brit Awards as announced by the British Phonographic Industry (BPI) on or before 28 February 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Brit Awards results.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Sun, 28 Feb 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Sun, 28 Feb 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Mon, 1 Mar 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: official BRIT Awards announcements (brits.co.uk).
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 53.29% | NO: 46.71%
- Total votes: 3370
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/de63c049-0ecf-46ea-bec7-549273818200

### WILL 'THE ODYSSEY' BE 2026'S HIGHEST-GROSSING MOVIE?
- YES: 82.25% | NO: 17.75%
- Total votes: 13228
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/showbiz/5d40cd1f-f2f3-40ba-b485-47818c2fc3a2

## Tech (8 markets)

### Will OpenAI release a model branded "GPT-6" before 31 December 2026?
The most debated question in AI research.
- YES: 66.53% | NO: 33.47%
- Total votes: 20863
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/7606a1da-87ef-4340-aa33-03a1045e802e

### SpaceX Mars Landing by 2028?
Elon Musk's ambitious Mars timeline.
- YES: 67.8% | NO: 32.2%
- Total votes: 21986
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/ce0d5d8d-abab-4ed4-8220-f556adf3d0ff

### Apple AR Glasses 2026
Rumors of a lighter, cheaper Apple AR device.
- YES: 73.94% | NO: 26.060000000000002%
- Total votes: 19381
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/6bac3cb8-424f-4bd9-a26a-223a4d28914b

### Will Ofcom legally force Elon Musk's X to restrict or block Grok AI in the UK over the deepfake investigation — before 30 September 2026?
- YES: 19.9% | NO: 80.1%
- Total votes: 18514
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/3c55a84d-51a8-43f5-9797-a441759009bc

### Kash Patel sued by Beastie Boys before 2027?
This question resolves YES if the Beastie Boys or their estate files a copyright infringement lawsuit against Kash Patel on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 EST. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: court records or official announcement.
- YES: 59.59% | NO: 40.41%
- Total votes: 10816
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/92190869-7336-4088-adc2-0ac5d4afd176

### Pennsylvania settles with Character.AI before 2027?
This question resolves YES if Pennsylvania and Character.AI reach a settlement agreement in the lawsuit over the chatbot posing as a doctor, confirmed by court filing or official announcement on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 EST. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: court records or official press release.
- YES: 65.98% | NO: 34.019999999999996%
- Total votes: 11748
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/18b5ab9a-732d-45b0-968d-c1853b147f2a

### Scott Turow wins Meta copyright lawsuit before 2027?
This question resolves YES if a court or jury rules in favor of Scott Turow and the publishing houses in their copyright infringement lawsuit against Meta, on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 EST. Resolves NO if Meta wins or the case is dismissed. Source: official court ruling.
- YES: 70.34% | NO: 29.659999999999997%
- Total votes: 10612
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/7e71f725-be99-434d-9708-4ee48f4b43b1

### Can Google land a commercial space AI computing contract before 1st January 2028?
YES: This question resolves YES if Google or Alphabet publicly announces a signed commercial or government contract to provide space-based AI computing services — derived from its satellite programme — on or before 31 December 2027 at 23:59 UTC. Source: official Alphabet/Google announcement or SEC filing. Resolves NO otherwise.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 31 Dec 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 31 Dec 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 1 Jan 2028, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: official SEC announcements (sec.gov).
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 55.62% | NO: 44.38%
- Total votes: 2118
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/tech/bb3e0bb8-debe-49be-ab2a-025af3c76a0d

## World (39 markets)

### Will Meta's AI data centre spending exceed $100bn globally by end of 2026?
This question resolves YES if Meta's cumulative announced or confirmed capital expenditure on AI data centres and infrastructure — across all global projects — reaches or exceeds $100 billion by 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT, as reported by Meta's official earnings filings (SEC 10-K or quarterly reports) or confirmed by Reuters/Bloomberg. Resolves NO otherwise.
- YES: 68.03% | NO: 31.97%
- Total votes: 7432
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/8f188ae4-aa1e-44ba-b051-a0ae1dfca23a

### Will US ground forces enter Iran before 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if US Department of Defense confirms US ground troops have crossed into Iranian territory on or before 15th of April 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Pentagon statements or major wire services (Reuters, AP).
- YES: 74.22% | NO: 25.78%
- Total votes: 27121
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/d5e6f0cc-1d98-4abf-a6fb-a1b06c71607e

### Will a 5% wealth tax on US billionaires pass Congress before 2028?
This question resolves YES if the US Congress passes legislation imposing a 5% annual wealth tax on billionaires (individuals with net worth exceeding $1 billion) on or before 1 January 2028. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Congressional records.
- YES: 19.4% | NO: 80.6%
- Total votes: 24455
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/7cf9dba2-79e2-4efb-a49c-11d530c8c500

### Jessica Pegula in WTA top 5 on 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if Jessica Pegula's official WTA singles ranking is 5th or higher in the rankings published on 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: WTA official rankings.
- YES: 76.71% | NO: 23.290000000000006%
- Total votes: 26634
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/a6da41a6-ed24-4b7c-a3d7-1e91755497b9

### Jessica Pegula wins a Grand Slam before 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if Jessica Pegula wins a singles Grand Slam title (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, or US Open) on or before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official tournament results.
- YES: 80.25% | NO: 19.75%
- Total votes: 25853
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/745380fc-f9e3-48b1-a31b-1a90e2469d1d

### Will Asia's coal consumption increase by 10%+ in 2026 due to the Iran war?
This question resolves YES if the International Energy Agency's 2026 report shows Asia's coal consumption increased by 10% or more compared to 2025 levels. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: IEA annual coal market report.
- YES: 24.4% | NO: 75.6%
- Total votes: 26450
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/80d14297-2636-45ee-8989-317ef5d4823f

### Will Meta's smartglasses be banned in UK public spaces before 1st December 2026?
This question resolves YES if the UK government or a UK legislative body (Parliament, devolved assembly) passes legislation specifically banning Meta smartglasses from public spaces (pubs, restaurants, transport, etc.) on or before 1 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official government publications or parliamentary records.
- YES: 80.55% | NO: 19.450000000000003%
- Total votes: 24824
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/5520a0cf-a28e-4af9-94f2-2b07b3577f72

### Will a photo from today's top world pictures become a viral meme before 1st December 2026?
This question resolves YES if a photograph featured in major news outlets' 'top pictures of the day' on the date of question publication generates over 100,000 shares/uses as a meme template on social media platforms (X/Twitter, Instagram, TikTok) on or before 1st December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: social media analytics and meme tracking sites.
- YES: 79.34% | NO: 20.659999999999997%
- Total votes: 15372
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/04ea01f4-be3e-4333-8a1f-1eb15b84142a

### Can Albania's Sazan tourism project proceed before 2027?
This question resolves YES if the Albanian government confirms a signed contract with a developer for tourism construction on Sazan Island on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 CET. Resolves NO if the project is officially cancelled or delayed beyond that date. Source: Albanian Ministry of Tourism official statement.
- YES: 70.79% | NO: 29.209999999999994%
- Total votes: 6069
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/506b57b8-5985-4abd-8489-080ab059c87c

### Will 2026 be the hottest year ever recorded?
- YES: 17.31% | NO: 82.69%
- Total votes: 14271
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/817d8210-0f21-4f4b-b4ab-cbc5109aed48

### China's Long March 10B booster reused in a second launch within 12 months?
This question resolves YES if the same Long March 10B booster that was successfully recovered using the net-based system is used in a second orbital launch, as confirmed by the China National Space Administration (CNSA) or official Chinese media, on or before 12 July 2027 at 23:59 BST. Resolves NO otherwise.
- YES: 77.56% | NO: 22.439999999999998%
- Total votes: 15422
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/1522c0f2-38eb-4fc4-b16c-661764779443

### Will a second confirmed JADEPUFFER-attributed ransomware attack hit a UK organisation before 1 October 2026?
- YES: 17.43% | NO: 82.57%
- Total votes: 14883
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/08cd7a6e-29a8-4317-9102-25c66395dbf4

### Can Josh Kerr win Olympic 1500m gold in 2028?
This question resolves YES if Josh Kerr wins the men's 1500m gold medal at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Olympic results from the IOC.
- YES: 73.61% | NO: 26.39%
- Total votes: 5467
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/2d7cf796-14be-4a2f-b2b3-5e8664b8d2ef

### Zimbabwe ferry disaster inquiry completed before 1st November 2026?
This question resolves YES if the Government of Zimbabwe publishes an official inquiry report into the Mbuya Nehanda ferry capsizing on or before 1 November 2026 at 23:59 BST. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Zimbabwean government publication.
- YES: 72.83% | NO: 27.17%
- Total votes: 11453
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/a020eb6f-4c25-4de3-a0a2-bbd03294b705

### Safety audit of Lake Kariba ferries completed before 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if the Zimbabwean government or its designated authority publishes a completed safety audit of passenger ferries operating on Lake Kariba on or before 1 January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official government publication.
- YES: 70.91% | NO: 29.090000000000003%
- Total votes: 7484
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/2fe48152-1b69-422b-a3c9-4cd5b21d8a1b

### UKUT tax ruling in Hanlon v HMRC published before 1st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Upper Tribunal (Tax and Chancery Chamber) publishes its written decision in the case of Hanlon v The Commissioners of His Majesty's Revenue and Customs [2026] UKUT 00379 (TCC) on or before 1 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Source: official Upper Tribunal judgments database. Resolves NO otherwise.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Tue, 1 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Tue, 1 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Wed, 2 Dec 2026, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/tax-and-chancery-tribunal-decisions/hanlon-v-the-commissioners-of-his-majestys-revenue-and-customs-2026-ukut-00379-tcc.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 57.13% | NO: 42.87%
- Total votes: 2834
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/5dc21985-49f7-469f-93ea-991c6bd1738b

### UK airports fully contactless at eGates by 1st January 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if UK Border Force confirms contactless technology is operational at all major UK airport eGates (Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow) on or before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: UK Border Force official announcements.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/airports-to-go-contactless-in-major-boost-for-uk-passengers.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 48.55% | NO: 51.45%
- Total votes: 3368
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/8ef7e84e-15b6-4ec3-944a-6681ee66c179

### Seaham mine water heat network expanded beyond 750 homes by 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if an official announcement confirms the Seaham mine water heat network will be expanded to serve more than 750 homes, with a target date before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Durham County Council or project partners.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/flicking-the-switch-to-heat-seaham-homes-with-mine-water-energy.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 56.63% | NO: 43.37%
- Total votes: 2119
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/9f69b377-c00d-4a12-8400-50cfeb3f3f2a

### Heathrow contactless eGates operational before 1st January 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if Heathrow Airport confirms contactless eGates are fully operational for arriving passengers on or before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Heathrow Airport official announcements or UK Border Force confirmation.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/airports-to-go-contactless-in-major-boost-for-uk-passengers.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 60.81% | NO: 39.19%
- Total votes: 860
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/f9fc21dc-14a9-4696-83ea-9c92ea6a9398

### Uber or Deliveroo to face new UK legal challenge before 1st January 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if Uber or Deliveroo is named as a defendant in a new UK employment status legal challenge (tribunal or High Court) filed on or before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: court filings or reported legal proceedings.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-action-to-crackdown-on-bogus-self-employment-loopholes.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 50.36% | NO: 49.64%
- Total votes: 2103
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/ac8b6c9d-2a16-44f5-8019-656941dc984f

### Leaseholders to get full cladding cost protection before 2028?
YES: This question resolves YES if UK legislation granting leaseholders full exemption from cladding remediation costs (beyond current protections) receives Royal Assent on or before 1 January 2028. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: legislation.gov.uk.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Sat, 1 Jan 2028, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Sat, 1 Jan 2028, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sun, 2 Jan 2028, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-milestone-reached-in-ending-building-safety-crisis.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 51.44% | NO: 48.56%
- Total votes: 1044
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/14167897-1fa7-4a86-99ef-355b188bd68b

### Will Demi Vollering win the 2027 Tour de France Femmes?
This question resolves YES if Demi Vollering is declared the overall winner of the 2027 Tour de France Femmes. Source: official race results from the Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO). Resolves NO otherwise.
- YES: 77.12% | NO: 22.879999999999995%
- Total votes: 11152
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/3bd1aefc-d93c-4e1e-b050-a9afbe00ca5a

### Can Josh Kerr break 3:42 in the mile before 1st July 2027?
This question resolves YES if Josh Kerr runs a mile in under 3:42.00 in an official World Athletics-sanctioned event before 1 July 2027 at 23:59 BST. Resolves NO otherwise.
- YES: 74.4% | NO: 25.599999999999994%
- Total votes: 16112
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/46ef2e0f-e382-4218-b83d-c630ae216b8d

### Is Sir Garfield Sobers the greatest all-rounder in cricket history?
This question resolves YES if a majority of a panel of five cricket historians (selected by ESPNcricinfo) declares Sir Garfield Sobers the greatest all-rounder in a published article on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: ESPNcricinfo.
- YES: 77.99% | NO: 22.010000000000005%
- Total votes: 14845
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/84929cf5-66c4-4276-8f95-a95359f8ef94

### Healthcare Ireland / Hutchinson Homes merger cleared without conditions by 2026 end?
YES: This question resolves YES if the CMA issues a final clearance decision without remedies or conditions for the acquisition by Y3 Holdings Limited (Healthcare Ireland) of Hutchinson Homes Limited on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: CMA official case page.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/healthcare-ireland-slash-hutchinson-homes-merger-inquiry.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 60.84% | NO: 39.16%
- Total votes: 1144
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/d0267077-550d-4d46-aae1-369a22a1b232

### Can the Kent prison expansion stay on schedule to 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Ministry of Justice confirms the Kent prison expansion remains on its published delivery timeline as of 1 January 2027. Resolves NO if any official announcement confirms delays or revised timelines. Source: MoJ infrastructure updates.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/kent-prison-to-gain-nearly-250-extra-places.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 54.22% | NO: 45.78%
- Total votes: 2038
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/1fd6c4a1-1e85-4e8c-bf52-72c6a862951e

### Will Tennessee abolish the death penalty by 2030?
YES: This question resolves YES if Tennessee officially abolishes the death penalty (through legislation, court ruling, or governor's action) on or before 31 December 2030. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official Tennessee state government records.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Tue, 31 Dec 2030, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Tue, 31 Dec 2030, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Wed, 1 Jan 2031, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/drug-device-alerts/field-safety-notices-for-october-2026.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 57.13% | NO: 42.87%
- Total votes: 3035
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/9f39b220-13cd-4dad-93c6-05d315921687

### UK-Japan science deal signed before 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK and Japan sign a new bilateral science and technology cooperation agreement on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official UK government or Japanese government announcement.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-japan-science-and-technology-joint-committee-joint-statement.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 56.84% | NO: 43.16%
- Total votes: 3496
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/7a74598b-7cc1-4db0-8c69-16c72ef41f5c

### Will UK insolvency law be tightened by 2027?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK government announces or implements new legislation specifically targeting directors who abandon failing companies on or before 1 January 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: gov.uk or Hansard.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Sat, 2 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/company-which-promised-directors-they-could-walk-away-from-failing-businesses-is-shut-down.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 57.16% | NO: 42.84%
- Total votes: 2117
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/30b4c100-a537-4023-91a5-936b705794bc

### Will dementia deaths in England fall year-on-year in 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the ONS annual mortality statistics for England show a year-on-year decrease in deaths where dementia or Alzheimer's was the underlying cause, for the 2026 registration year, published on or before 31 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Backup source: ONS monthly mortality analysis.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/i-have-real-hope-that-britain-can-come-together-to-defeat-dementia-pm.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 57.95% | NO: 42.05%
- Total votes: 2485
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/e24c9cb3-8b33-42fb-9896-7812eb4e98db

### UK Mission to Jerusalem fully operational by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK Mission in Jerusalem is officially operational and accepting consular functions on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office official statements.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-statement-on-the-uks-diplomatic-presence-in-jerusalem.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 60.17% | NO: 39.83%
- Total votes: 2973
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/af444140-f585-40a2-af53-8041d0849463

### Will Hoad's Wood be fully restored as a public woodland by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Environment Agency or Kent County Council formally confirms Hoad's Wood is fully restored and reopened for public access on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Environment Agency or local council official statement.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/illegal-waste-at-hoads-wood-fully-cleared-as-crackdown-continues.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 58.36% | NO: 41.64%
- Total votes: 1256
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/894d9d5e-a013-4310-a8df-d3854fdfafea

### Grenfell Tower fully dismantled before 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Grenfell Tower site is confirmed fully cleared of the standing structure by the Grenfell Tower Memorial Commission or the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. If work is paused for memorial consultation, resolves NO.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/grenfell-tower-community-update-october-2026.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 48.8% | NO: 51.2%
- Total votes: 2340
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/eb0e075a-4f4d-4c21-9be4-5ea8c9beb0d1

### Will the Environment Agency's waste crime budget increase in 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK government's 2026 Budget or Spending Review confirms an increase in the Environment Agency's waste crime enforcement budget compared to 2025. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: HM Treasury Budget documents.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/illegal-waste-at-hoads-wood-fully-cleared-as-crackdown-continues.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 58.6% | NO: 41.4%
- Total votes: 1645
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/50ec713d-c98d-4259-87d2-b3c900f7971e

### More than 5 WWII graves identified by MOD's War Detectives in 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the Ministry of Defence announces the identification of more than 5 previously missing WWII soldiers in 2026, as confirmed by official MOD press releases. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: MOD official records.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/grave-of-cornish-soldier-missing-since-1945-identified-in-germany.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 58.35% | NO: 41.65%
- Total votes: 2855
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/a218a5e4-6964-47ce-9fbe-8b40387e24e4

### Pine marten confirmed breeding in Suffolk by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if Suffolk Wildlife Trust or Natural England confirms evidence of pine marten breeding (e.g., kits born) in Suffolk on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Source: official conservation body reports. Resolves NO otherwise.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pine-marten-caught-on-camera-in-suffolk-nature-reserve-first.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 51.77% | NO: 48.23%
- Total votes: 2803
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/6b3346c9-44f4-47eb-93d2-d83594c8777d

### Can the SFO secure a new major fraud conviction by 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK Serious Fraud Office secures at least one new conviction in a case with alleged losses exceeding £10 million, as confirmed by an official SFO press release or a major UK wire service report, on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/response-to-supreme-court-judgment.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 63.75% | NO: 36.25%
- Total votes: 2254
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/ae02f598-e5a3-4a43-9849-6f4bf20d9ed8

### Can Reeves land a UK-China trade deal before 31st December 2026?
YES: This question resolves YES if the UK Government and Government of China publish a joint statement confirming a new bilateral trade or investment agreement signed by both parties on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: GOV.UK and Chinese Ministry of Commerce official releases.
NO if the YES condition above has not been met by Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time.
Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UK time. Resolved after: Fri, 1 Jan 2027, 00:59 UK time.
Primary source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-call-with-vice-premier-he-lifeng-of-china-8-october-2026.
Postponement: If the event is postponed, the question resolves on the original terms only if the event takes place before the close time; otherwise it is void. The close time is never extended after publication.
Void: Void (all points returned) if the event is cancelled or abandoned, if neither the primary nor the backup source can confirm the outcome within 7 days of the close time, or if the question's premise was materially false when it was published.
Rules version 1, fixed at publication.
- YES: 58.57% | NO: 41.43%
- Total votes: 3432
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/37e73d9e-0ee1-44d1-828a-3ba46c73f845

### Will 2026 be the hottest year ever recorded?
- YES: 17.62% | NO: 82.38%
- Total votes: 17357
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/world/c6cfc0eb-9649-4520-a1b7-2c2247b90f8e

## Finance (7 markets)

### Oil hits $100/barrel again in 2026?
Oil hasn't sustainably traded above $100 since 2022. For it to return there, a major supply shock or surge in demand would be needed. Most analysts see this as unlikely given the energy transition.
- YES: 28.65% | NO: 71.35%
- Total votes: 40292
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/9f8be0f0-811b-4654-adbb-926bfdf9ff92

### Will the average UK council tax bill exceed £2,500/year before 1st April 2027?
This question resolves YES if the UK government's official statistics for the average Band D council tax bill in England reaches or exceeds £2,500 per year in any financial year starting on or before 1 April 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities official release.
- YES: 75.17% | NO: 24.83%
- Total votes: 33763
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/5dc2676f-8b11-4bb1-a8a3-7b3a7b330fb0

### Will HMRC's allowance cuts affect over 5 million taxpayers before 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if HMRC or ONS data confirms that 5 million or more UK taxpayers are negatively impacted by the allowance cuts announced in the 2026 Budget (e.g., reduced personal allowance, savings allowance) on or before 1st January 2027 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: HMRC official statistics or ONS report.
- YES: 73.57% | NO: 26.430000000000007%
- Total votes: 21091
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/1a4fa6df-f418-44fd-85d0-10a095d5f5e3

### Will the average UK water bill exceed £600/year before 1st April 2027?
This question resolves YES if the average household water and sewerage bill in England and Wales, as published by Water UK, reaches or exceeds £600 per year in any financial year starting on or before 1 April 2027. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: Water UK's annual 'Water Matters' report.
- YES: 62.91% | NO: 37.09%
- Total votes: 36736
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/6ff95982-9763-4a0d-99a6-6a1b561bc42d

### Will HMRC send Winter Fuel Payment letters to all 1.3 million pensioners before 1st November 2026?
This question resolves YES if HMRC confirms all 1.3 million Winter Fuel Payment letters have been dispatched and delivered to eligible pensioners on or before 1st November 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: HMRC official announcement or press release.
- YES: 78.37% | NO: 21.629999999999995%
- Total votes: 32286
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/129ed107-5fd2-4c23-893f-7e3aad5a7c9d

### Will the Bank of England base rate fall below 4% before 1st December 2026?
This question resolves YES if the Bank of England MPC officially sets the base rate below 4.0% in any announcement published on or before 1 June 2026 at 23:59 GMT. Source: Bank of England official MPC decisions. Resolves NO if the base rate has not dropped below 4.0% by the deadline. If an MPC meeting is postponed, resolves based on the next available announcement.
- YES: 39.53% | NO: 60.47%
- Total votes: 12910
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/baba0ba3-d309-4f09-a4d3-6dc1f26fd243

### Will the US private credit market suffer a high-profile default before 1st January 2027?
This question resolves YES if a private credit fund or direct lender with $1bn or more in assets under management publicly announces a default, suspension of redemptions, or emergency restructuring on or before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 EST. Source: Bloomberg, Financial Times, or Reuters confirmed reporting. Resolves NO if no such event is reported by that date.
- YES: 67.79% | NO: 32.209999999999994%
- Total votes: 33815
- Link: https://www.peoplesodds.com/markets/finance/f13bb811-1474-4227-a076-c7fbd82846ec